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The look for profit won’t end when you have found the best online soccer football betting tips. There is still a great deal to be done to be certain consistent profit. Money management is simply as important as using the correct football betting tips.
However within the rush to get their money on, a lot of people overlook this important component of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s look at it in basic terms: You are betting on two football matches. You know that you will produce a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would want to put more income on the match by having an 80% chance of profit would not you? Which is money management.
It is basically managing your money to manage with risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you should risk less money and also on the bets that can be stronger, you’ll need to stake extra money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it really is often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate the amount to put on a team? The most frequent method is to use the same amount (level stake) on each selection. While this can work in the long run, in the short-run you will need to watch out for long sequences of losers from the bigger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many will be the Kelly Criterion. Conversely, Kelly requires you to learn the probability of a win. The bet size is then determined by first converting the cost on offer in to a probability. You then have to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The main difference between the sports book’s price probability as well as your probability must be positive. If it really is negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A bigger difference would suggest a larger investment and a small difference would suggest a small investment.
Now as you would ever guess, a typical person cannot estimate the probability of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians’ and professionals rave concerning this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it’s great in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least for 90% of people who try to use it, and I am guessing that is you and me included.
Instead I want to use a typical price available. Sports Books have studied the matches thorough and it is not often that they get the costs wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our foes greatest strength their weakness. Yes, I know that upsets happen, but if you look-at sports book prices over a long period, you shall find that should they quote a result at even money, that result will occur close to 50% of the time.
So by utilizing this as the true probability of the result we can accurately calculate the amount to invest on each football tip.
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